Foundations of decision analysis / Ronald Howard and Ali E. Abbas

By: Howard, Ronald A [Author]
Contributor(s): Abbas, Ali E [Author]
Publisher: Boston : Pearson, c2016Description: 829 pages : illustrations ; 24 cmISBN: 9781292079691Subject(s): DDC classification: 003.56
Contents:
Introduction to quality decision making -- Experiencing a decision -- Clarifying values -- Precise decision language -- Possibilities -- Handling uncertainty -- Relevance -- Rules of actional thought -- The party problem -- Using a value mesure -- Risk attitude -- Sensitivity analysis -- Basic information gathering -- Decision diagrams -- Encoding a probability distribution on a measure -- From phenomenon to assessment -- Framing a decision -- Valuing information from multiple sources -- Options -- Detectors with multiple indicators -- Decisions with influences -- The logaritihmic u-curve -- The linear risk tolerance u-curve -- Approximate expressions for the certain equivalent -- Deterministic and probabilistic dominance -- Decisions with multiple attributes (1)-ordering prospects with preference and value functions -- Decisions with multiple attributes (2)-value functions for investment cash flows : time preference -- Decisions with multiple attributes (3)-Preference probabilities over value -- Betting on disparate belief -- Learning from experimentation -- Auctions and bidding -- Evaluating scaling and sharing uncertain deals -- Making risky decisions -- Decisions with a high probability of death -- Discretizing continuous probability distributions -- Solving decision problems by simulation -- The decision analysis cycle -- Topics in organizational decision making -- Coordinating the decision making of large groups -- Decisions and ethics.
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Includes index.

Introduction to quality decision making --
Experiencing a decision --
Clarifying values --
Precise decision language --
Possibilities --
Handling uncertainty --
Relevance --
Rules of actional thought --
The party problem --
Using a value mesure --
Risk attitude --
Sensitivity analysis --
Basic information gathering --
Decision diagrams --
Encoding a probability distribution on a measure --
From phenomenon to assessment --
Framing a decision --
Valuing information from multiple sources --
Options --
Detectors with multiple indicators --
Decisions with influences --
The logaritihmic u-curve --
The linear risk tolerance u-curve --
Approximate expressions for the certain equivalent --
Deterministic and probabilistic dominance --
Decisions with multiple attributes (1)-ordering prospects with preference and value functions --
Decisions with multiple attributes (2)-value functions for investment cash flows : time preference --
Decisions with multiple attributes (3)-Preference probabilities over value --
Betting on disparate belief --
Learning from experimentation --
Auctions and bidding --
Evaluating scaling and sharing uncertain deals --
Making risky decisions --
Decisions with a high probability of death --
Discretizing continuous probability distributions --
Solving decision problems by simulation --
The decision analysis cycle --
Topics in organizational decision making --
Coordinating the decision making of large groups --
Decisions and ethics.

000-099

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