Howard, Ronald A.

Foundations of decision analysis / Ronald Howard and Ali E. Abbas - 829 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.

Includes index.

Introduction to quality decision making --
Experiencing a decision --
Clarifying values --
Precise decision language --
Possibilities --
Handling uncertainty --
Relevance --
Rules of actional thought --
The party problem --
Using a value mesure --
Risk attitude --
Sensitivity analysis --
Basic information gathering --
Decision diagrams --
Encoding a probability distribution on a measure --
From phenomenon to assessment --
Framing a decision --
Valuing information from multiple sources --
Options --
Detectors with multiple indicators --
Decisions with influences --
The logaritihmic u-curve --
The linear risk tolerance u-curve --
Approximate expressions for the certain equivalent --
Deterministic and probabilistic dominance --
Decisions with multiple attributes (1)-ordering prospects with preference and value functions --
Decisions with multiple attributes (2)-value functions for investment cash flows : time preference --
Decisions with multiple attributes (3)-Preference probabilities over value --
Betting on disparate belief --
Learning from experimentation --
Auctions and bidding --
Evaluating scaling and sharing uncertain deals --
Making risky decisions --
Decisions with a high probability of death --
Discretizing continuous probability distributions --
Solving decision problems by simulation --
The decision analysis cycle --
Topics in organizational decision making --
Coordinating the decision making of large groups --
Decisions and ethics.



9781292079691



003.56