Effective exchange rates and economic growth : the impact of NEER and REER on Philippine GDP and sectoral performance.

Exchange rate movements influence trade competitiveness and economic growth. In the Philippines, understanding the roles of the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is essential for policy decisions. This study examines how NEER and REER relate to overall GDP and sectoral outputs—agriculture, industry, and services—from 2000 to 2024. A quantitative, longitudinal, correlational design was used. Annual NEER, REER, and GDP data were sourced from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Descriptive statistics and regression analyzed trends and relationships at a 0.05 significance level. The Philippine economy grew steadily, with GDP rising from ₱3.7 trillion in 2000 to ₱26.4 trillion in 2024, despite fluctuations in growth rates. Services dominated output, while agriculture and industry grew slowly. NEER remained stable, whereas REER appreciated over time. Regression analysis showed NEER had no significant relationship with GDP or any sector. REER did not significantly affect overall GDP but had a meaningful negative effect on agriculture (β = −0.0024, p = .033), indicating that real appreciation reduces agricultural competitiveness. Exchange rate movements, especially in real terms, have limited impact on short-term GDP but influence agriculture. Policymakers should monitor REER to protect agricultural competitiveness and complement exchange rate management with structural reforms and productivity measures.