Foundations of decision analysis /
Ronald Howard and Ali E. Abbas
- 829 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.
Includes index.
Introduction to quality decision making -- Experiencing a decision -- Clarifying values -- Precise decision language -- Possibilities -- Handling uncertainty -- Relevance -- Rules of actional thought -- The party problem -- Using a value mesure -- Risk attitude -- Sensitivity analysis -- Basic information gathering -- Decision diagrams -- Encoding a probability distribution on a measure -- From phenomenon to assessment -- Framing a decision -- Valuing information from multiple sources -- Options -- Detectors with multiple indicators -- Decisions with influences -- The logaritihmic u-curve -- The linear risk tolerance u-curve -- Approximate expressions for the certain equivalent -- Deterministic and probabilistic dominance -- Decisions with multiple attributes (1)-ordering prospects with preference and value functions -- Decisions with multiple attributes (2)-value functions for investment cash flows : time preference -- Decisions with multiple attributes (3)-Preference probabilities over value -- Betting on disparate belief -- Learning from experimentation -- Auctions and bidding -- Evaluating scaling and sharing uncertain deals -- Making risky decisions -- Decisions with a high probability of death -- Discretizing continuous probability distributions -- Solving decision problems by simulation -- The decision analysis cycle -- Topics in organizational decision making -- Coordinating the decision making of large groups -- Decisions and ethics.