The influence of the US dollar-Philippine peso exchange rate fluctuations to inflation rates, and GDP.

This study examines the relationship between the Philippine peso–US dollar exchange rate, inflation rate, and GDP growth from 2010 to 2024 using official data from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The research is relevant because currency movements can affect price stability and economic performance in an open economy like the Philippines. A quantitative design was used, relying on secondary data. Descriptive statistics summarized trends in exchange rates, inflation, and GDP growth. Simple linear regression models tested whether the peso–US dollar exchange rate significantly influences inflation and GDP growth. Results show that the peso depreciated steadily over the period, inflation remained mostly stable with spikes in 2018 and 2023, and GDP growth averaged 5.24% but dropped sharply in 2020 due to the pandemic before rebounding in 2022. Regression analysis revealed a weak positive relationship between the exchange rate and inflation (R² = 0.152) and virtually no relationship with GDP growth (R² = 0.003), with both effects statistically insignificant at the 0.05 level. The findings suggest that inflation and GDP are influenced more by other factors such as food prices, energy costs, and domestic demand than by exchange rate movements. Limitations include the small sample size and the use of simple models. Future research should incorporate additional variables and dynamic methods to better capture complex interactions among exchange rates, inflation, and growth.