Spatial impacts of climate change / coordinated by Denis Mercier

Includes bibliographical references and index

Introduction xiiiDenis MERCIER Chapter 1. Climate Change at Different Temporal and Spatial Scales 1Denis MERCIER 1.1. Contemporary global climate change 1 1.2. Contemporary Arctic-wide climate change 6 1.3. Future global climate change 9 1.4. Future Arctic-wide climate change 11 1.5. The causes of climate change 13 1.5.1. Solar radiation 13 1.5.2. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 14 1.5.3. Volcanism 16 1.5.4. Albedo and the radiation balance 17 1.6. Conclusion 19 1.7. References 19 Chapter 2. Climate Change and the Melting Cryosphere 21Denis MERCIER 2.1. Introduction 21 2.2. The sensitivity of the cryosphere to climate change 22 2.3. Melting of the marine cryosphere 24 2.3.1. The melting of the Arctic sea ice 24 2.3.2. Antarctic sea ice 27 2.4. Melting of the Earth’s cryosphere 28 2.4.1. Melting ice sheets 28 2.4.2. The melting of mountain glaciers 32 2.4.3. Decreasing permafrost 35 2.4.4. Melting snow 35 2.5. Consequences of the melting cryosphere 36 2.5.1. On a global scale: rising sea levels 36 2.5.2. Regionally: paraglacial risks 38 2.6. Conclusion 40 2.7. References 40 Chapter 3. Between Warming and Globalization: Rethinking the Arctic at the Heart of a Stakes System 43Éric CANOBBIO 3.1. Spatial impacts of climate change in the Arctic 43 3.1.1. Clarifying the terms of the subject in their polar contexts 44 3.2. The manufacture of polar issues, between global warming and globalization 52 3.2.1. Warming and space production, a decade of confusion off the Arctic coasts 53 3.2.2. Three interacting contexts 57 3.3. The production of polar doctrines: rhetoric and frameworks for action 59 3.3.1. Factors of convergence and consensus 60 3.3.2. Differentiation factors 61 3.3.3. The strategic dimensions of Arctic policies, the complex issue of polar militarization 62 3.4. Geography of a new system of stakeholder relations in the Arctic 65 3.5. Conclusion: polar metamorphisms 67 3.6. References 68 Chapter 4. Coastlines with Increased Vulnerability to Sea-level Rise 71Axel CREACH 4.1. Introduction 71 4.2. Coastlines under the influence of sea-level rise 72 4.2.1. The pressures of climate change on coastlines 72 4.2.2. Consequences of sea-level rise on coastlines 76 4.3. Increasingly attractive coastlines for societies 78 4.3.1. The coastalization process 78 4.3.2. A densification of activities on the coastlines 79 4.3.3. A closer approach to the sea 81 4.4. Towards the necessary adaptation of coastal areas 83 4.4.1. The coastline, an area at risk 83 4.4.2. Possible coping strategies 84 4.4.3. The example of the Netherlands 86 4.5. Which coastline for tomorrow? 87 4.6. References 89 Chapter 5. The Consequences of Climate Change on the Paraglacial Sedimentary Cascade 93Denis MERCIER and Étienne COSSART 5.1. The paraglacial sedimentary cascade: elements of definition 93 5.1.1. General principles of the concept of a paraglacial sedimentary cascade 93 5.1.2. Paraglacial spatial boundaries 98 5.1.3. The temporal limits of the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 99 5.2. Sediment inputs to the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 102 5.2.1. Landslides 102 5.2.2. Remobilization of slope deposits 105 5.3. Sediment fluxes within the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 108 5.3.1. The evolution of ice margins on a decadal scale 108 5.3.2. Paraglacial fluvial metamorphoses on a secular scale 109 5.4. Sedimentary stocks or the end of the paraglacial sedimentary cascade 110 5.4.1. Temporary storage areas on a secular scale 110 5.4.2. Interglacial-scale temporary storage areas 112 5.4.3. Final storage areas 115 5.5. Conclusion 115 5.6. References 116 Chapter 6. Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Periglacial Environments 119Denis MERCIER and Étienne COSSART 6.1. Introduction 119 6.1.1. Definition of periglacial 120 6.1.2. Present and past spatial extent of periglacial environments 121 6.2. Melting permafrost and paraperiglacial geomorphological crises 125 6.2.1. Definition of paraperiglacial 125 6.2.2. Paraperiglacial processes and forms 127 6.3. Periglacial coastal environments in high latitudes in the face of climate change 129 6.4. Periglacial environments at high altitudes in the face of climate change 131 6.4.1. Gravity dynamics and permafrost wall degradation 132 6.4.2. Gravity dynamics and permafrost degradation in loose formations 134 6.4.3. The impact of global warming on high-mountain practices 136 6.5. Conclusion 137 6.6. References 138 Chapter 7. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Dynamics of High Latitude Periglacial Environments 143Emmanuèle GAUTIER 7.1. Periglacial regions strongly affected by recent climate change 143 7.1.1. Much warmer winters 143 7.1.2. Permafrost and its sensitivity to air temperatures 144 7.2. The influence of permafrost on hydrological functioning 146 7.2.1. Numerous wetlands in periglacial environments 147 7.2.2. The knock-on effects of climate change on slope hydrology 148 7.3. The response of Arctic fluvial hydrosystems to ongoing climate change 150 7.3.1. River ice 153 7.3.2. Increasing winter low water levels 155 7.3.3. Spring flooding and breakup 157 7.3.4. The rapid evolution of water discharge 159 7.4. Conclusion 163 7.5. References 163 Chapter 8. The Impacts of Climate Change on Watercourses in Temperate Environments 167Gilles DROGUE 8.1. What is at stake? 167 8.1.1. Spatial dynamics of climate zoning and river regimes 167 8.1.2. Watercourses: resource, vector and living environment 169 8.1.3. The (dis)equilibrium between precipitation, evapotranspiration and flow in temperate environments 171 8.1.4. The study of past climate impacts 173 8.1.5. The study of future climate impacts 173 8.1.6. Summary 174 8.2. Hydrological changes already “observable” 176 8.2.1. The case of metropolitan France 176 8.2.2. Continental trends: Western Europe 179 8.3. Hydrological projections 180 8.3.1. For French rivers 180 8.3.2. For continental Europe 181 8.4. Conclusion 184 8.5. References 184 Chapter 9. Spatial Impacts of Melting Central Asian Glaciers: towards a “Water War”? 187Alain CARIOU 9.1. Societies and economies dependent on the cryosphere 187 9.1.1. The possibility of water scarcity and “water war”? 187 9.1.2. “Water tower” mountains for arid depressions 188 9.1.3. Tensions between riparian and rival states 194 9.2. The impact of climate change on water resources 198 9.2.1. Recession of the cryosphere 198 9.2.2. The consequences of cryosphere retreat on hydrology 200 9.2.3. Human societies facing the challenge of climate change 202 9.3. Conclusion 205 9.4. References 206 Chapter 10. Spatial Impact of Climate Change on Winter Droughts in the Mediterranean and Consequences on Agriculture 209Florian RAYMOND and Albin ULLMANN 10.1. Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin 209 10.2. Droughts during rainy seasons 211 10.2.1. Rainfall drought: the absence of rain in time and space 211 10.2.2. Detection of very long dry events in the Mediterranean Sea 212 10.2.3. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the main event patterns of very long dry spells 213 10.3. Rainfall droughts in the Mediterranean: impacts on Spanish agrosystems 216 10.4. Rainfall droughts in the Mediterranean: projections for the future 218 10.5. Conclusion 221 10.6. References 222 Chapter 11. The Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Viticulture Around the World 225Hervé QUÉNOL and Renan LE ROUX 11.1. Introduction 225 11.2. Recent climatic trends in the world’s wine-growing regions 226 11.3. Climate zoning in viticulture 227 11.4. Impact of climate change: anticipating changes in the spatial distribution of vines 230 11.4.1. Towards climate change modeling in wine-growing regions 231 11.4.2. The need to take into account local factors 236 11.5. Conclusion 238 11.6. References 239 Chapter 12. Climate Change in the Amazon: A Multi-scalar Approach 243Vincent DUBREUIL, Damien ARVOR, Beatriz FUNATSU, Vincent NÉDÉLEC and Neli DE MELLO-THÉRY 12.1. Introduction 243 12.2. The Amazonian climate system 244 12.2.1. Heat, humidity and regional diversity 244 12.2.2. Radiation balance and general circulation 247 12.2.3. The forest-climate interaction issue 248 12.3. A changing system: deforestation, warming and drying? 250 12.3.1. Pioneering dynamics: rise and (provisory?) decline 250 12.3.2. Increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall 252 12.3.3. The dynamics of the start and end dates of the rainy season 252 12.3.4. Local effects of land-use changes 254 12.4. Uncertainties of future changes, perceptions and adaptations 257 12.4.1. Savanization and tipping points 257 12.4.2. An overall impact which is certain, but which remains to be specified 258 12.4.3. Perceptions and adaptations by local populations 259 12.5. Conclusion: a stake in the global negotiations 261 12.6. References 263 Chapter 13. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Biomes 267Delphine GRAMOND 13.1. Biomes, a representation of life on a global scale 268 13.1.1. The biome, an indicator of climatic context: what are the realities? 269 13.1.2. From the roots of a globalizing concept to the emergence of an operational scale 270 13.2. Structural and functional impacts of climate change on terrestrial biomes 274 13.2.1. From bioclimatic bathing to modification of ecological processes 274 13.2.2. Identifying changes: from global diagnosis to biological responses 275 13.3. Spatializing change: biome modeling 279 13.3.1. Observed and projected global impacts 279 13.3.2. Observed and projected impacts for the Arctic region 282 13.4. Conclusion 284 13.5. References 286 Chapter 14. Spatial Impacts of Climate Change on Birds 289Laurent GODET 14.1. Introduction 289 14.2. Contemporary distributional changes 291 14.2.1. Latitudinal shifts 292 14.2.2. Altitudinal shifts 293 14.2.3. Spatial manifestations of range changes 295 14.3. Different responses for different species 297 14.3.1. Dispersion capabilities 297 14.3.2. Reproductive capacity 298 14.3.3. Generalist nature 299 14.4. Conservation implications 299 14.4.1. Ecological consequences 299 14.4.2. Conservation measures 300 14.5. Conclusion 302 14.6. References 303 List of Authors 311 Index 313

Climate change has been a central concern over recent years, with visible and highly publicized consequences such as melting Arctic ice and mountain glaciers, rising sea levels, and the submersion of low-lying coastal areas during mid-latitude and tropical cyclones.
This book presents a review of the spatial impacts of contemporary climate change, with a focus on a systematic, multi-scalar approach. Beyond the facts – rises in temperature, changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation, melting of the marine and terrestrial cryosphere, changes in hydrological regimes at high and medium latitudes, etc. – it also analyzes the geopolitical consequences in the Arctic and Central Asia, changes to Mediterranean culture and to viticulture on a global scale, as well as impacts on the distribution of life, for example, in the Amazon rainforest, in large biomes on a global scale, and for birds.