| 000 -LEADER |
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| fixed length control field |
01906nab a22002177a 4500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
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| control field |
20230202093413.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
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230202b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d |
| 100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
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| Preferred name for the person |
Paman, Joshua Mari J. |
| Relator term |
author |
| 245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT |
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| Title |
Measles outbreak detection in Metro Manila: comparisons between ARIMA and INAR models |
| 264 #4 - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT) |
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| Date of publication, distribution, etc |
2017 |
| 520 3# - SUMMARY, ETC. |
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| Summary, etc |
It is the goal of many developing countries to stop the spread of diseases. Part of this effort is to conduct ongoing surveillance of disease transmission to foresee future epidemics. However, in the Philippines, there is a lack of an automated method in<br/>determining their presence. This paper presents a comparison between an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model and<br/>the more commonly known autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models in detecting the presence of disease outbreaks. Daily measles reports spanning from January 1, 2010 to January 14, 2015 were obtained from the Department of Health and were used to motivate this study. Synthetic datasets were generated using a modified Serfling model. Similarity tests using a dynamic time warping algorithm were conducted to ensure that simulated datasets observe similar behavior with the original set. False positive rates, sensitivity rates, and delay in detection were then evaluated between the two models. The results gathered show that an INAR model performs favorably compared to an ARIMA model, posting higher sensitivity rates, similar lag times, and equivalent false positive rates for three-day signal events. |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
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| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Measles |
| 650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM |
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| Topical term or geographic name as entry element |
Algorithms |
| 651 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--GEOGRAPHIC NAME |
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| Geographic name |
Metro Manila (Philippines) |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
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| Personal name |
Santiago, Frank Niccolo M. |
| Relator term |
author |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
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| Personal name |
Mojica, Vio Jianu C. |
| Relator term |
author |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
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| Personal name |
Co, Frumencio F. |
| Relator term |
author |
| 700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
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| Personal name |
Leong, Robert Neil F. |
| Relator term |
author |
| 773 ## - HOST ITEM ENTRY |
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| Title |
The Philippine Statistician |
| Relationship information |
vol. 66, no. 2: (2017), pages 71-91 |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS |
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| Source of classification or shelving scheme |
|
| Item type |
JOURNAL ARTICLE |